A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
